This is not a single experiment but a huge collection of descriptive data. Here are three findings we think are worth a closer look.

In short: teacher shortages show up more in under-qualified staff than in empty posts; falling pupil numbers will not automatically fix them; and a new pattern in graduate unemployment is worth watching, but it is far too early to blame AI.

1. Shortages show up in qualifications, not just vacancies

When we picture a teacher shortage, we tend to imagine unfilled posts. In most countries with data, unfilled vacancies are actually below 3% of positions, and often below 1%. Latvia and Luxembourg are exceptions, at around 4% in secondary education.

More often, shortages are hidden in who fills the posts. On average across OECD countries, 9.1% of primary and secondary teachers were not fully qualified in 2024/25, as schools recruited people without standard teaching qualifications to cover gaps. Long absences add pressure too: in Austria, 11% of teachers were off for more than two months during the year.

Shortages are also uneven. Maths and natural sciences are hit hardest almost everywhere, while arts, social studies and PE are less affected. In some countries the problem is concentrated in remote rural areas; in others, in individual schools, often in disadvantaged communities.

2. Falling pupil numbers will not automatically solve the problem

The number of children aged 5–14 across the OECD is projected to fall by 9% between 2024 and 2033. It is tempting to assume that fewer pupils means fewer teachers needed. The OECD is sceptical: over the past decade, many countries kept or even increased teacher and class numbers as rolls fell.

At the same time, 25% of secondary teachers are aged 55 or older and close to retirement. Without careful planning, the report warns, retirements and shrinking rolls could deepen shortages in some schools and regions while leaving others with classes too small to be financially sustainable.

3. A new pattern in graduate unemployment, but AI is not proven to be the cause

Between 2023 and 2025, unemployment among tertiary-educated 25–34-year-olds rose by 0.4 percentage points on average across the OECD, while among young adults with upper-secondary qualifications it fell by 0.2 points. The gap between the two narrowed from 2.4 to 1.8 points.

According to the OECD, this is the first period since its data series began in 2000 in which unemployment rose for young graduates while falling for those with upper-secondary qualifications. Some have linked this to AI reducing demand for graduate skills. The report is careful here: degrees still bring substantial labour-market benefits, and evidence for a lasting AI-driven shift in demand for skills remains limited. Its advice is to monitor the trend closely, not to jump to conclusions.

What else the report says about teachers

• Job satisfaction is high on average. Around 85% of teachers are satisfied with their jobs, similar to other professions, but this varies hugely between countries.
• Career changers can help. In Australia and the Netherlands, more than 15% of lower-secondary teachers came to teaching from another career, supported by flexible, employment-based training routes. Many countries have no structured route at all.
• Teaching competes with the whole economy. Vacancy rates in the wider economy are higher than in teaching in more than half the countries with data. While skills shortages persist elsewhere, schools will keep competing for a limited pool of workers.

Why it matters

Reports like this help separate problems within education from the conditions around it. Teacher shortages, demographic change, labour-market pressures and funding all shape what schools can realistically deliver, whatever happens in the classroom.

It is also a useful reminder that a trend and its explanation are two different things. A change in graduate unemployment does not, on its own, show that AI is responsible.

A note of caution

International comparisons need care. Countries differ in how their education systems and labour markets work, how they define terms such as “fully qualified”, and what data they collect. OECD averages can hide very large differences between countries, and the figures for any one country, including the UK, may look quite different.

The report is also mainly descriptive. It is excellent for spotting patterns and raising questions, but the statistics alone cannot tell us what causes those patterns.

Source

OECD (2026). Education at a Glance 2026: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing. Published 29 September 2026. The report and supporting materials are free to read.

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